Selected tracks · Updated daily · JWorm's Picks

The Pace Driven Ranking Method

Every race day, the model ranks the top four in every race — a pace-and-ability rating, value against the morning line, run style, and how the race should unfold. The latest picks file is below, and it updates automatically.

Key tracks June – August '26: Churchill Downs, Saratoga, Del Mar, Kentucky Downs, Ellis Park, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Woodbine, and more.

Updated automatically

The latest rankings

This file updates automatically whenever a new rankings file is loaded — same routine as always: replace the file in Google Drive and this page shows the new version.

JWorm Pace Rankings Auto-updates from the source file
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How to read the file

Every column, explained

Rank

The model's top four in each race, in order.

Pgm

Program number, shown in saddle-cloth colors.

Rating

The model's overall pace-and-ability score for the horse.

ML

The morning-line odds.

Value

Where the price beats the model: Strong Overlay and Overlay are bets the board is underrating; Fair is priced about right; Underlay is shorter than it should be.

Run Style

Early, Presser, Sustained — or Unknown for first-time starters.

Pace Shape

How the race projects to unfold: Slow, Quick Early, Paceless, and so on.

Pace Fit

The trip each horse projects to get in this field: Lead, Press, Stalk, or Close.

Conf ★

The model's confidence in its own read of the race — five stars means clear separation; press the strong races, pass the muddled ones.

Learn the method

How to best utilize it

Learn how to best utilize the JWorm Racing Pace Driven Ranking Method.

Proven results — Rank 1 + Confidence · over 3,000+ races.

JWorm's Picks Report: every column explained — Rank, Pgm, Horse, Rating, ML, Proj Odds, Run Style, Pace Shape, Pace Fit, and Confidence, with the race title color showing the surface. What the ratings are telling you: Rating is raw ability, Rank is the pace-adjusted final answer, and Confidence stars show how sure the model is. The confidence star system: win rates from 41.5% at five stars down to the wide-open one- and two-star races, with a strategy for each level. The rating gap: how far ahead the top pick is matters as much as the stars — a gap over 8 points wins 38 to 43 percent. Running styles: Lead wins 42.4%, Press 28.7%, Stalk 29.4%, Close 27.5% — and which pace scenarios favor each. When to bet big and when to spread: the green-light combination of 4-5 stars, a gap over 8, and a front-runner top pick wins 58.2%.