Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 11 races
JWorm's Churchill Downs picks today: the top four in every race, ranked by the Pace Driven Ranking Method, a pace-and-ability rating with morning-line value, run style and how each horse fits the projected pace.
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | TESS ME NOT Tr: A. Stall Jr Jk: A. Concepcion | 68.2 | 77 | 81▲ | 9/2 | Strong Overlay | Early/Presser | Lead |
| 2 | 5 | BROADWAY GIRL (FTS) Tr: B. Cox Jk: I. Ortiz Jr | 46.7 | — | — | 8/5 | Underlay | Unknown | Stalk |
| 3 | 3 | SEATON SPRINGS (FTS) Tr: K. McPeek Jk: J. Ortiz | 45.4 | — | — | 5/2 | Underlay | Unknown | Stalk |
| 4 | 4 | MY PAL AL Tr: R. Medina Jk: J. Alvarado | 52.6 | 57 | 71▼ | 10/1 | Strong Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | ANYWHERE WITH YOU (IRE) Tr: B. Walsh Jk: T. Gaffalione | 57.1 | 74 | 79▼ | 3/1 | Underlay | Presser | Stalk |
| 2 | 11 | NOVO MESTO Tr: E. Kenneally Jk: F. Arrieta | 68.0 | 84 | 80▼ | 7/2 | Underlay | Sustained | Close |
| 3 | 12 | GLASSING Tr: S. Joseph Jr Jk: T. Gaffalione | 62.3 | 71 | 78▼ | 6/1 | Underlay | Sustained | Close |
| 4 | 8 | SHE'S ICY Tr: C. DeVaux Jk: J. Ortiz | 58.1 | 40 | 81▼ | 6/1 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KARAJAN Tr: D. Romans Jk: F. Prat | 73.1 | 78 | 86▲ | 4/1 | Strong Overlay | Early | Lead |
| 2 | 5 | PIRATE SHIP Tr: J. Sharp Jk: I. Ortiz Jr | 63.2 | 58 | 81▼ | 7/2 | Underlay | Presser | Stalk |
| 3 | 7 | MO OCTANE (FTS) Tr: H. Pitts Jk: E. Morales | 49.6 | — | — | 6/1 | Underlay | Unknown | Stalk |
| 4 | 3 | HAT YAI (FTS) Tr: B. Walsh Jk: T. Gaffalione | 44.4 | — | — | 8/1 | Underlay | Unknown | Stalk |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | RACHELI Tr: K. Desormeaux J Jk: J. Graham | 65.5 | 47 | 81▲ | 6/1 | Underlay | Early | Press |
| 2 | 14 | YOUR CHOICE Tr: T. Rivera Jk: A. Gomez | 64.2 | 63 | 80▲ | 10/1 | Strong Overlay | Early | Press |
| 3 | 4 | VOLI TE (FTS) Tr: J. Sharp Jk: J. Ortiz | 57.3 | — | — | 9/2 | Underlay | Unknown | Stalk |
| 4 | 3 | FLAMING VERDICT Tr: M. Maker Jk: T. Gaffalione | 54.0 | 69 | 80▲ | 6/1 | Underlay | Presser | Stalk |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | IDEATION (IRE) Tr: J. Sisterson Jk: I. Ortiz Jr | 65.1 | 77 | 87▼ | 7/2 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Lead |
| 2 | 7 | SAN MORITZ Tr: B. Baffert Jk: F. Prat | 66.8 | 81 | 87▼ | 5/1 | Underlay | Sustained | Close |
| 3 | 13 | TRAVELIN Tr: B. Lynch Jk: J. Velazquez | 63.8 | 72 | 83▼ | 4/1 | Underlay | Presser | Stalk |
| 4 | 15 | AMERICAN VETERAN Tr: C. DeVaux Jk: J. Ortiz | 60.6 | 76 | 86▼ | 9/2 | Underlay | Early | Press |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | VUKOTA Tr: K. LaRose Jk: B. Hernandez Jr | 68.0 | 76 | 83▼ | 5/2 | Underlay | Early | Press |
| 2 | 5 | EVER ROYAL Tr: E. Foster Jk: F. Arrieta | 65.4 | 81 | 86▼ | 10/1 | Strong Overlay | Early | Lead |
| 3 | 3 | LORD MISCHIEF (FTS) Tr: B. Cox Jk: I. Ortiz Jr | 47.5 | — | — | 4/1 | Underlay | Unknown | Stalk |
| 4 | 11 | OREN'S FLYER Tr: T. Drury Jr Jk: E. Morales | 53.6 | 65 | 86▼ | 12/1 | Strong Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | STAND BY ME Tr: E. Foster Jk: F. Arrieta | 70.1 | 75 | 81▲ | 9/2 | Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 2 | 11 | SCARLET RIBBONS (FTS) Tr: B. Baffert Jk: F. Prat | 49.7 | — | — | 5/2 | Underlay | Unknown | Stalk |
| 3 | 3 | JASMINE ABSOLUTE (FTS) Tr: P. Bauer Jk: J. Alvarado | 52.4 | — | — | 10/1 | Fair | Unknown | Stalk |
| 4 | 12 | LUXDOMINA (FTS) Tr: B. Cox Jk: I. Ortiz Jr | 45.4 | — | — | 5/1 | Underlay | Unknown | Stalk |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | MEDINAH Tr: M. Casse Jk: J. Ortiz | 64.0 | 76 | 84▲ | 6/5 | Underlay | Early | Press |
| 2 | 3 | BEE CRAZY Tr: K. Danner Jk: T. Gaffalione | 55.2 | 76 | 83▼ | 3/1 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 3 | 5 | CIARLATANO Tr: B. Vanden Jk: C. Emigh | 50.7 | 70 | 80▼ | 10/1 | Strong Overlay | Early | Lead |
| 4 | 10 | GAL PAL (FTS) Tr: G. Arnold II Jk: A. Concepcion | 38.3 | — | — | 6/1 | Underlay | Unknown | Stalk |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | WHARFIE Tr: W. Mott Jk: J. Alvarado | 48.6 | 65 | 78▲ | 9/5 | Underlay | Sustained | Close |
| 2 | 5 | LUNAR VELOCITY Tr: R. Bryner Jk: F. Arrieta | 65.9 | 70 | 77▲ | 8/1 | Strong Overlay | Early | Press |
| 3 | 3 | OH SHE SAID YES Tr: K. McPeek Jk: J. Ortiz | 65.5 | 68 | 83▲ | 5/2 | Fair | Early/Presser | Press |
| 4 | 4 | COUNTTHETRUE Tr: W. Catalano Jk: E. Morales | 55.3 | 64 | 75▼ | 12/1 | Strong Overlay | Early/Presser | Lead |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MYSTIK BAYOU Tr: K. McPeek Jk: J. Ortiz | 60.8 | 77 | 81▼ | 9/5 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Lead |
| 2 | 2 | BLESSED FLYER Tr: M. Tomlinson Jk: B. Hernandez Jr | 71.4 | 90 | 89▼ | 7/2 | Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 3 | 3 | CARD MAN Tr: C. Brown Jk: F. Prat | 61.3 | 81 | 83▼ | 5/2 | Underlay | Early | Press |
| 4 | 7 | STAUNCH Tr: B. Walsh Jk: T. Gaffalione | 59.4 | 83 | 83▼ | 5/1 | Fair | Presser | Stalk |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FOOLS RUSH IN Tr: B. Cox Jk: I. Ortiz Jr | 71.2 | 83 | 86▼ | 3/1 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 2 | 4 | AUTOMATIC PRESS Tr: K. Sweezey J Jk: R. Vazquez | 65.6 | 69 | 85▼ | 10/1 | Strong Overlay | Early | Lead |
| 3 | 1 | FULLBACK Tr: W. Mott Jk: T. Gaffalione | 56.6 | 77 | 86▼ | 6/1 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 4 | 12 | BETTER QUALITY Tr: K. Desormeaux J Jk: J. Graham | 58.1 | 86 | 86▼ | 8/1 | Fair | Sustained | Close |
Ratings are a handicapping tool, not a guarantee. Morning lines change, so check live odds before betting. Every track, every day: the full pace rankings.