Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 10 races
JWorm's Churchill Downs picks on Thursday, October 29, 2026: the top four in every race, ranked by the Pace Driven Ranking Method, a pace-and-ability rating with morning-line value, run style and how each horse fits the projected pace.
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | BRIGHT SKITTLE Tr: W. Mott Jk: J. Alvarado | 57.9 | 76 | 87▲ | 8/5 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Lead |
| 2 | 4 | QUENTIN B Tr: D. Romans Jk: G. Corrales | 67.3 | 77 | 86▲ | 5/2 | Overlay | Early | Press |
| 3 | 2 | CIRCLE ME Tr: T. Wismer Jk: C. Torres | 56.1 | 68 | 86▲ | 6/1 | Strong Overlay | Presser | Stalk |
| 4 | 5 | DARK FORCE Tr: G. Weaver Jk: L. Saez | 47.5 | 45 | 86▲ | 7/2 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | UP THE CREEK Tr: M. Williams Jk: F. Arrieta | 54.2 | 78 | 90▼ | 9/5 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 2 | 6 | TAQDEER Tr: D. Jacobson Jk: T. Gaffalione | 66.1 | 78 | 86▼ | 4/1 | Strong Overlay | Early | Press |
| 3 | 2 | SWIFTWIND Tr: S. Asmussen Jk: E. Asmussen | 64.8 | 77 | 92▼ | 6/1 | Strong Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 4 | 4 | MARGOINABUBBLEBATH Tr: G. Garcia Jk: A. Concepcion | 52.3 | 77 | 87▼ | 3/1 | Underlay | Early | Lead |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | REZA Tr: T. Moubarak Jk: J. Ortiz | 70.7 | 79 | 79▼ | 7/2 | Strong Overlay | Sustained | Close |
| 2 | 8 | CACTUS CLOSER Tr: D. Romans Jk: J. Alvarado | 57.6 | 64 | 88▼ | 6/1 | Strong Overlay | Early | Press |
| 3 | 3 | TRIM CASTLE Tr: J. Ennis Jk: E. Morales | 53.4 | 77 | 86▼ | 10/1 | Strong Overlay | Early | Press |
| 4 | 5 | ALLURA Tr: K. Danner Jk: T. Gaffalione | 52.5 | 77 | 84▼ | 8/1 | Strong Overlay | Early | Lead |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | WATERSHED MOMENT Tr: R. Medina Jk: R. Bejarano | 61.2 | 62 | 77▲ | 9/5 | Underlay | Early | Lead |
| 2 | 6 | BAMTWENTYKLATER Tr: E. Moger Jr Jk: S. Pauly | 65.3 | 70 | 85▲ | 10/1 | Strong Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 3 | 3 | QUINN'S PROMISE Tr: S. Asmussen Jk: L. Saez | 59.0 | 68 | 83▲ | 4/1 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 4 | 4 | MUSTANG LADY Tr: S. Asmussen Jk: K. Asmussen | 57.1 | 72 | 81▲ | 10/1 | Strong Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | TEXAS DANDELION Tr: J. Sharp Jk: Y. Ortiz Jr | 47.2 | 41 | 75▲ | 5/2 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 2 | 11 | BOSS LADY KAR Tr: J. Cunningham S Jk: A. Beschizza | 66.0 | 60 | 61▼ | 4/1 | Underlay | Sustained | Close |
| 3 | 2 | BIG LUZ Tr: K. McPeek Jk: J. Ortiz | 63.0 | 51 | 82▲ | 7/2 | Underlay | Sustained | Close |
| 4 | 8 | GOLDEN SIPS Tr: N. Rivera Jk: G. Corrales | 54.6 | 39 | 60▼ | 6/1 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | PASEO Tr: I. Wilkes Jk: B. Hernandez Jr | 65.4 | 82 | 86▼ | 2/1 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 2 | 2 | MARCINKOWSKI Tr: V. Oliver Jk: L. Saez | 60.1 | 80 | 88▼ | 9/2 | Fair | Early/Presser | Press |
| 3 | 1 | STRUCK AT MIDNIGHT Tr: J. Sharp Jk: J. Ortiz | 59.3 | 81 | 89▼ | 3/1 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 4 | 6 | CHARM OF VENICE (GB) Tr: B. Walsh Jk: T. Gaffalione | 59.0 | 80 | 94▼ | 4/1 | Underlay | Sustained | Close |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | GUARDIAN Tr: E. Foster Jk: T. Gaffalione | 69.3 | 78 | 89▲ | 5/2 | Fair | Early | Lead |
| 2 | 4 | STAY FOR THE BOOM Tr: K. LaRose Jk: L. Saez | 63.5 | 79 | 93▲ | 9/5 | Underlay | Early | Press |
| 3 | 2 | WHITE WHALE Tr: B. Calhoun W Jk: B. Hernandez Jr | 62.8 | 77 | 90▲ | 9/2 | Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 4 | 5 | HESPER Tr: S. Kurtz Jk: D. Cannon | 45.9 | 71 | 87▼ | 8/1 | Underlay | Presser | Stalk |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | WE BE MISCHIEF Tr: S. Asmussen Jk: I. Ortiz Jr | 69.9 | 89 | 88▼ | 4/1 | Overlay | Early/Presser | Lead |
| 2 | 4 | BEIJING Tr: R. Moquett Jk: R. Bejarano | 66.5 | 83 | 86▼ | 8/1 | Strong Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 3 | 11 | STELVIO PASS Tr: B. Colebrook Jk: L. Machado | 60.0 | 88 | 88▼ | 6/1 | Fair | Early/Presser | Press |
| 4 | 10 | ALWORTH Tr: C. Davis Jk: L. Saez | 51.0 | 75 | 90▲ | 6/1 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | MOBULA Tr: J. Sharp Jk: J. Ortiz | 65.7 | 74 | 79▼ | 8/5 | Underlay | Early | Lead |
| 2 | 8 | GRADE A Tr: J. O'Dwyer Jk: J. Rosado | 62.4 | 91 | 95▲ | 5/2 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 3 | 3 | SOCIAL BELLE Tr: P. Lobo Jk: W. Rodriguez | 60.4 | 84 | 89▲ | 8/1 | Strong Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 4 | 1 | SPRING DANCER Tr: R. Morse Jk: F. Arrieta | 45.2 | 81 | 92▲ | 6/1 | Underlay | Early | Press |
| Rk | # | Horse | Rating | Avg Spd | Avg Cls | ML | Value | Run Style | Pace Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HIMOTHY Tr: R. Moquett Jk: T. Gaffalione | 65.4 | 67 | 87▲ | 3/1 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Lead |
| 2 | 13 | MAJOR MACK Tr: S. Asmussen Jk: K. Asmussen | 67.9 | 54 | 77▲ | 12/1 | Strong Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 3 | 16 | CRAZY DIAMOND Tr: L. Schultz Jk: A. Cedillo | 60.5 | 76 | 86▲ | 9/2 | Underlay | Early/Presser | Press |
| 4 | 5 | PREMIERE DANCER Tr: E. Moger Jr Jk: S. Pauly | 60.5 | 48 | 77▲ | 12/1 | Overlay | Early/Presser | Press |
Ratings are a handicapping tool, not a guarantee. Morning lines change, so check live odds before betting. Every track, every day: the full pace rankings.